Platner holds commanding lead over Mills in Maine Senate race: Poll
Key keywords: Maine Senate Race 2024, Platner polling lead, Mills Senate campaign, Maine voter sentiment, US Senate control 2024, Maine election polling, independent voters Maine
A new independent poll released Wednesday by the Portland Press Herald and the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Democratic candidate Erik Platner holds a double-digit commanding lead over Republican rival Sarah Mills in Maine’s highly competitive 2024 U.S. Senate race, with just six weeks remaining until election day. The survey of 1,200 likely Maine voters, conducted between September 12 and September 18 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, found Platner drawing support from 52% of respondents, compared to 41% for Mills, with 7% of voters still undecided.
The poll reveals stark divides across voter demographics that explain Platner’s substantial lead. He holds an 18-point advantage among independent voters, who make up nearly 35% of Maine’s registered electorate, the highest share of any state in the U.S. Platner also leads by 14 points among female voters, 21 points among suburban voters in southern and coastal Maine, and even holds a narrow 3-point lead among rural voters in the state’s northern 2nd Congressional District, a region that voted for former President Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020.
Policy preferences appear to be driving the gap. 68% of respondents said they approved of Platner’s proposals to expand affordable rural healthcare access, cap prescription drug costs for seniors, and offer tax credits for working-class families struggling with rising inflation. By contrast, only 42% of voters said they supported Mills’ policy platform, which includes cuts to state social spending and loosening environmental regulations for logging and mining operations. Mills has also faced backlash over her past support for a 2% state sales tax increase that passed in 2021, which 59% of poll respondents said had a negative impact on their household finances.
This Senate seat is widely viewed as a critical battleground for control of the U.S. Senate, where Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority. Both parties have poured more than $42 million into ad spends in the state so far, making this the most expensive political race in Maine’s history. Campaign officials for Platner said the poll results validate their grassroots outreach strategy, which has included more than 120 town hall events across all 16 of Maine’s counties since the start of the year. Mills’ campaign released a statement Wednesday saying they remain confident they will close the gap in the final weeks of the race, pointing to planned advertising buys focused on immigration and crime policy, and three upcoming televised debates between the two candidates.
Featured Comments
I’ve lived in rural Aroostook County for 28 years, and Platner’s consistent visits to our small towns to listen to our concerns about healthcare and farm subsidies are the reason he’s got my vote. This lead doesn’t shock me at all—Mills has barely set foot north of Bangor this entire campaign.
As a political analyst who has covered Maine elections for 15 years, the 18-point lead among independent voters is the real takeaway here. Unless Mills can flip that demographic dramatically in the next six weeks, this race is effectively over. Her campaign’s focus on national social issues just isn’t resonating with Maine voters who care far more about local pocketbook concerns.
As someone who’s been tracking Senate control odds all cycle, this poll is a massive blow to Republican hopes of taking the majority. Maine was supposed to be one of their most winnable pickup opportunities, but Platner’s consistent double-digit lead across four separate polls in the last two months makes this seat look far safer for Democrats than anyone predicted earlier this year.