Key keywords: stock futures, Iran-Israel conflict ceasefire, May market open, geopolitical risk reduction, US equity benchmarks, commodity price stabilization, Strait of Hormuz shipping security, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations U.S. and global stock futures traded sharply higher in premarket sessions Thursday to launch the new month, as surging investor optimism that the months-long military standoff between Iran and Israel is nearing a diplomatic resolution has erased a large portion of the geopolitical risk premium that weighed on risk assets through April. As of 7:45 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures climbed 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 242 points, or 0.64%. European markets followed the positive lead, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 up 0.78% in early trade, while Asian markets closed mostly higher overnight, led by a 1.27% gain in Japan’s Nikkei 225 and a 0.9% rise in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index. Diplomatic insiders confirmed late Wednesday that ceasefire negotiations brokered by the United Nations, Qatar, and Egypt have made unprecedented progress, with both Iranian and Israeli officials issuing public statements signaling willingness to accept a conditional truce that would end cross-border strikes, with a formal announcement expected as early as this weekend. The development comes after weeks of rising fears that the conflict would escalate into a wider regional war that could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the corridor that carries roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply. In response to the de-escalation signals, Brent crude futures fell 2.3% to $78.15 per barrel in early trading, while safe-haven assets pulled back sharply: spot gold dropped 1.1% to $2,308 per ounce, and the U.S. dollar dipped 0.4% against a basket of global currencies. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.63% as investors shifted capital out of defensive assets and back into equities. Tom Garretson, senior portfolio strategist at RBC Wealth Management, noted in a client note Thursday: “The market has priced in a 3-5% risk premium for Middle East escalation over the past four weeks, so any concrete progress toward a ceasefire is going to act as a strong tailwind for equities to start the month. We’re seeing broad-based gains across cyclical sectors from tech to industrials to consumer discretionary, as investors unwind their hedges against a wider conflict.” Investors are also looking ahead to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due Friday, which will offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, but market data shows 72% of Thursday’s premarket rally is directly tied to the geopolitical positive news. First-quarter corporate earnings season also continues to provide fundamental support, with 81% of S&P 500 companies that have reported results so far beating analyst profit expectations by an average of 7.3%.