NVIDIA (NVDA) Closes Above $920 on April 7? Trading Odds, Analyst Predictions & Market Implications
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As of premarket trading on April 7, 2024, NVIDIA (NVDA) has stood as the top-performing large-cap semiconductor stock of the year, with year-to-date gains exceeding 82% driven by insatiable global demand for its AI accelerator chips. Following a $906.16 closing price on April 4, market participants are closely tracking whether the stock will close above the $920 threshold at the end of the April 7 trading session, a key resistance level identified by technical analysts over the past two weeks.
Data from options trading platform CBOE shows that the implied probability of NVDA closing above $920 on April 7 stands at 68.2%, based on the pricing of same-day expiry options contracts. Call options with a $920 strike price have seen open interest surge 217% over the past three trading days, as both retail and institutional traders place bets on a breakthrough of the resistance level.
Multiple catalysts are supporting the bullish outlook for the April 7 close. Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month NVDA price target to $1,000, citing faster-than-expected adoption of its H200 AI chips among cloud service providers and enterprise customers. The firm noted that NVIDIA’s order backlog now extends to mid-2025, with average selling prices for its high-end AI chips remaining 15% above initial 2024 forecasts. Additionally, preliminary data from semiconductor industry association SEMI indicated that global AI chip shipments will rise 76% in 2024, with NVIDIA holding an 83% share of the discrete AI accelerator market. Premarket trading on April 7 also saw NVDA rise 1.3% as of 8:30 AM ET, following positive commentary from Morgan Stanley analysts who highlighted the company’s upcoming next-gen gaming chip launch as an additional near-term growth driver.
On the bearish side, some analysts warn that short-term profit taking could push the stock below the $920 threshold by close. Approximately $2.3 billion worth of NVDA shares are scheduled to be sold by institutional holders on April 7 as part of pre-planned trading plans, which could create downward pressure during midday trading. Technical analysts also note that the stock’s relative strength index (RSI) currently sits at 72, indicating it is in overbought territory and vulnerable to a short-term pullback. Retail investor sentiment remains heavily bullish, with a poll of 12,000 users on the WallStreetBets subreddit showing that 76% of respondents expect NVDA to close above $920 on April 7, with total notional value of same-day expiry call positions exceeding $1.1 billion as of premarket trading.
Featured Comments
@TechTrader_Jake 2024-04-06 19:32 EST: I’ve been trading NVDA options for 3 years, and the current call open interest at $920 for April 7 expiry is nearly 3x the put open interest. Unless there’s an unexpected sector selloff in the last hour of trading, it’s almost a lock that NVDA closes above that threshold. The AI demand tailwind is just too strong right now to ignore.
@RetailInvestor_Luna 2024-04-07 08:15 EST: I bought 10 $920 call contracts yesterday after seeing the premarket pop of 1.2%. Even if it dips slightly midday, the institutional buying pressure we’ve seen all week will push it over the line before close. My only regret is not buying more contracts when it dipped 3% last week.
@SemiconductorAnalyst_Mark 2024-04-07 10:02 EST: While the short-term odds favor a close above $920, investors should be cautious of post-earnings profit taking later this month. NVDA is trading at nearly 70x forward P/E, which leaves very little room for negative surprises even if its Q1 earnings beat expectations. The April 7 close is a short-term trading play, not a signal of long-term valuation stability.
@MarketWatcher_Tess 2024-04-07 11:27 EST: The pre-planned institutional selloff is the only real wild card here, but most of those shares are being offloaded in block trades off the public exchange, so the impact on intraday pricing will be minimal. I’m predicting a close at $923-$927 today.