Key keywords: Hormuz Strait tension, Trump Iran deal imminent claim, 2024 US election geopolitical impact, JCPOA renegotiation, global oil supply security, IRGC naval operations, Gulf regional stability, US-Iran diplomatic relations Oct 17, 2024 — Multiple reports of naval intercepts and near-collisions between Iranian military vessels and commercial ships have roiled the Strait of Hormuz this week, just 48 hours after former U.S. President and 2024 Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump claimed during a Florida campaign rally that a "historic, mutually beneficial Iran nuclear deal is imminent, pending our election victory." The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow 39-mile waterway separating Iran from Oman, carries roughly 20% of the world’s total oil supply and 30% of all seaborne traded crude, making it the most strategically critical energy shipping lane on the planet. Even minor disruptions to traffic through the strait have historically triggered sharp spikes in global energy prices and widespread market volatility. Iran’s foreign ministry immediately rejected Trump’s claim as "empty election propaganda" on Monday, noting that Tehran will not enter any negotiations with the U.S. until Washington first lifts all unilateral sanctions imposed after the Trump administration withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. Hardline factions within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) went a step further, framing Trump’s statement as a "sign of U.S. weakness" and vowing to step up patrols of Iranian territorial waters in the strait. By Tuesday morning, IRGC naval units had intercepted three Panama-flagged oil tankers accused of violating Iranian maritime boundaries, temporarily detaining 27 crew members before releasing the vessels 12 hours later following mediation from Omani officials. More than 12 near-collisions between Iranian patrol boats and commercial ships were also reported between Tuesday and Wednesday, leading 17 major shipping operators to announce temporary suspensions of transit through the strait. Global Brent crude prices jumped 7.4% in 24 hours to $98.9 per barrel, the highest level recorded in 14 months, with analysts warning prices could top $110 per barrel if disruptions continue for more than a week. The U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet has increased patrols in the region to protect freedom of navigation, while the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued an urgent statement calling for all parties to exercise restraint to avoid a broader regional conflict. International Energy Agency (IEA) analysts noted that Trump’s unvetted campaign remark appears to have emboldened anti-diplomacy hardliners in Iran, who have long sought to sabotage any potential diplomatic thaw with Washington.