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UFC 328 Expert Picks: Full Analysis and Predictions for Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland Headliner

Key keywords: UFC 328, Khamzat Chimaev, Sean Strickland, expert fight picks, middleweight title contention, UFC pay-per-view, mixed martial arts predictions, strike vs. grapple matchup, undefeated MMA contender, former UFC middleweight champion UFC 328, scheduled for November 16, 2024 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, is headlined by one of the most polarizing and highly anticipated middleweight bouts in recent UFC history, as undefeated contender Khamzat Chimaev faces off against former 185-pound champion Sean Strickland, with the winner guaranteed a title shot against reigning middleweight king Dricus du Plessis in early 2025. Leading MMA outlets including ESPN, MMA Junkie and Bloody Elbow have released consolidated expert pick panels this week, with 8 out of 14 participating analysts leaning towards Chimaev, and the remaining 6 backing Strickland to pull off the upset. Chimaev, boasting a perfect 13-0 professional record, has steamrolled every opponent he has faced across welterweight and middleweight since his UFC debut in 2020, with an 86% takedown success rate and 11 of his 13 wins coming by finish. Experts picking Chimaev cite his elite freestyle wrestling base, relentless pressure, and fight-ending submission ability as the X-factors that will overwhelm Strickland. They note that while Strickland holds a solid 73% takedown defense rate, he has never faced a grappler with the speed, power and chain takedown consistency of Chimaev, who regularly secures takedowns even after initial stuffed attempts. Many also highlight that Chimaev has finished 70% of his opponents within the first two rounds, an stat that could play against Strickland if he cannot survive Chimaev’s early storm. Experts picking Strickland, who holds a 28-5 professional record, point to his signature high-volume jab, iron chin, championship-level cardio and experience in 5-round main events as his core advantages. Strickland is coming off a dominant 2023 title win over Israel Adesanya and a narrow split decision loss to du Plessis earlier this year, proving he can hang with the very best of the middleweight division. Analysts also reference Chimaev’s visible fatigue in his 3-round decision win over Kamaru Usman at UFC 294, arguing that if Strickland can stuff the first 3 to 4 takedown attempts and push the pace into the later rounds, he can take over the fight with his constant striking output. Pay-per-view pre-order numbers for UFC 328 are already tracking 22% higher than the average numbered UFC event in 2024, as fans tune in to see if Chimaev can continue his historic undefeated run, or if Strickland can cement his status as one of the division’s most consistent top contenders.

Featured Comments

Reader 1 2026-05-07 18:17
As a long-time Chimaev fan, the expert picks picking him by second-round submission are totally spot on. Strickland’s takedown defense is good, but no one at 185 has ever been able to stop Khamzat once he locks his hands on your hips. I’m already hyped to see how he shuts down Sean’s nonstop trash talk once the cage door closes.
Reader 2 2026-05-07 18:17
Y’all are sleeping on Strickland so hard it’s ridiculous. He just beat Izzy, has the sharpest jab in the entire division, and his cardio is literally unmatched. Khamzat clearly gassed against Usman, and if Sean can stuff the first few takedowns, this is gonna be a lopsided striking clinic. I’ve got Sean by TKO in round 4, mark my words.
Reader 3 2026-05-07 18:17
This is easily the most interesting main event the UFC has booked all year. I don’t even care who wins, I just want to see if Khamzat can actually live up to all the hype against a legitimate, tested former champion. The picks are split almost 50/50, which means we’re guaranteed an absolute banger. Already bought my pay-per-view package weeks ago.
Reader 4 2026-05-07 18:17
I can’t believe how many people are writing off Strickland’s 5-round experience. Khamzat is a beast, but he’s never gone past 3 rounds in his entire UFC career, and Sean is gonna make him work every single second. I’m calling a split decision win for Strickland, it’s gonna be that close of a fight.