More than half of US voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of economy — FT poll
Key keywords: US voter sentiment, Trump economic policy approval, Financial Times 2024 election poll, 2024 US presidential election, US economic performance, Trump economic handling disapproval, voter economic concern, swing state voter opinion
A new joint poll conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business has revealed that a majority of U.S. registered voters hold negative views of former president Donald Trump’s management of the national economy during his 2017-2021 term, a finding that threatens to undermine the core messaging of his 2024 presidential campaign. The survey sampled 1,245 registered voters across the United States between October 12 and October 17, 2024, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
The results show that 54% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s economic track record, while only 42% approve of his handling of economic issues during his time in office. Economic issues rank as the top priority for 61% of likely voters, far outpacing other key policy areas including abortion access (18%), immigration reform (12%), and climate action (7%), making voter perceptions of candidate economic competence the single most decisive factor in the upcoming election.
Swing state voters, who will determine the outcome of the electoral college vote, are even more skeptical of Trump’s economic record: 57% of respondents in battleground states including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada said they disapprove of his economic handling, with only 39% approving. For months, the Trump campaign has centered its electoral messaging on the pre-pandemic economic boom of his first three years in office, highlighting record low unemployment rates for Black and Hispanic workers, steady wage growth for low-income households, and reduced energy prices prior to 2020. However, the poll indicates that most voters are evaluating Trump’s full term in office, including the 2020 COVID-19 recession that wiped out 22 million U.S. jobs in a two-month period, the supply chain disruptions that began under his watch, and the initial rise in inflation that hit 1.4% in January 2021 before peaking at 9.1% in June 2022 under the Biden administration.
Demographic breakdowns show sharp divides along income and party lines: 89% of Democratic voters disapprove of Trump’s economic record, while 82% of Republican voters approve. Independent voters, who make up roughly 30% of the electorate, disapprove of Trump’s economic handling by a 56% to 38% margin. Among voters earning less than $50,000 per year, 61% hold a negative view of Trump’s economic policies, compared to 48% of voters earning more than $100,000 annually. In response to the poll results, Trump campaign communications director Steven Cheung dismissed the findings as biased, while the Biden campaign seized on the data as proof that voters reject Trump’s claims of successful economic leadership.
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As an independent voter in Michigan who supported Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, this poll lines up exactly with what I hear from people in my community. We don’t forget that grocery and gas prices started spiking in the final months of Trump’s term, and his 2017 tax cuts only benefited wealthy people like him, not working families making under $60,000 a year. I don’t love every part of Biden’s economic record, but I’m not voting to go back to the chaos of Trump’s final year in office.
This poll is a huge warning sign for the Trump campaign, which has built its entire 2024 pitch around the claim that he delivered a stronger economy than Biden. For months they’ve assumed voters will only remember the pre-COVID economy, but it’s clear most people are judging his full term, including the massive job losses at the start of the pandemic and the start of the inflation surge that hit household budgets so hard. If he can’t win the economic argument, he has almost no path to victory in the swing states that decide the election.
As a lifelong Republican who has voted in every presidential election since 1988, I think this poll is completely out of touch with reality. Everyone I know remembers that before COVID hit, we had the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, gas was under $2 a gallon, and wage growth for low-income workers was outpacing inflation for the first time in decades. The mainstream media keeps pushing these biased polls to help Biden, but anyone who pays attention knows Trump’s economic policies worked for every income group, not just the elites.