Expert Picks: 2024 PGA Championship – Top Contenders, Sleepers and Win Predictions for Valhalla Major Showdown
Key keywords: PGA Championship 2024, Expert Golf Picks, Valhalla Golf Club, Major Golf Tournament, PGA Tour Top Contenders, Golf Win Predictions, Golf Betting Odds, Sleeper Picks for PGA Championship
The 2024 PGA Championship, the second men’s golf major of the year, is set to tee off at Louisville’s historic Valhalla Golf Club on May 16, drawing 156 of the world’s top PGA Tour players competing for the iconic Wanamaker Trophy. Our panel of 12 golf analysts and former tour pros has released its annual expert picks, breaking down top contenders, value sleeper selections, and data-backed win predictions to help fans and bettors navigate the highly anticipated tournament.
First, the consensus top pick among 8 of the 12 experts is world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who has posted four top-3 finishes in his last five starts, including a dominant win at the 2024 Masters Tournament in April. Scheffler’s combination of elite driving accuracy (ranked 2nd on the PGA Tour this season) and aggressive iron play makes him uniquely suited to Valhalla’s 7,374-yard par-72 layout, which features thick Kentucky bluegrass rough and firm, undulating greens that penalize wayward approach shots. His pre-tournament betting odds sit at +550, the lowest of any player in the field, and 6 of the experts predict he will take home his second major title of the year.
Second on the expert picks list is Rory McIlroy, the 2014 PGA Championship winner who claimed his last major title at Valhalla exactly 10 years ago. Seven of the 12 experts listed McIlroy as their second pick, citing his recent resurgence in form, with three top-5 finishes in his last four tour starts, and his proven track record of performing well on the course’s long, risk-reward par 5s. McIlroy’s betting odds are listed at +800 as of press time, and analysts note that his improved short game this season eliminates the biggest weakness that kept him out of major contention in 2023.
The panel also highlighted three sleeper picks with high upside for bettors: 2023 U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark (+1800), who has finished in the top 10 in three consecutive majors, rising star Cameron Young (+3000), who ranks top 10 in driving distance this season and has posted top-15 finishes in 5 of his last 6 major starts, and 2023 PGA Championship runner-up Brooks Koepka (+2200), who has a career record of 4 major wins and consistently elevates his play at big-tournament events. The expert analysis also notes that weather could play a factor in the tournament, with forecasted thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday expected to soften the greens and potentially favor players with strong short games, who can capitalize on more accessible pin positions over the weekend.
Featured Comments
As a casual golf bettor who followed last year’s PGA Championship expert picks and cashed a $400 win bet on Brooks Koepka, I’m definitely putting half my bankroll on Rory this year. His 2014 win at Valhalla is impossible to ignore, and he looks locked in lately after his win at the Scottish Open last month.
I played Valhalla in a charity outing two weeks ago, and the rough is absolutely brutal – if you miss the fairway by more than 10 feet, you’re lucky to advance the ball 100 yards. The experts are spot on picking Scheffler; his driving accuracy is insane right now, he’s gonna avoid so many of those messy rough spots that will take other players out of contention.
I love the sleeper pick of Cameron Young here. His odds at +3000 are a steal – he’s finished in the top 15 in 5 of his last 6 major starts, and he hits the ball far enough to handle all of Valhalla’s long par 4s. I’m putting a small wager on him to finish top 5, the payout will be huge if he pulls through.
It’s wild to see how low Scheffler’s odds are, but honestly, he’s playing so well right now it’s justified. I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs away with this tournament by 4 or 5 strokes, just like he did at the Masters. The only thing that could derail him is the weekend rain, but even then his short game is good enough to adjust.