Ford Stock Looks Cheap Now: Is This the Right Time to Buy?
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After a 12% pullback over the past three months, Ford Motor Co’s stock is trading at roughly $12 per share as of mid-2024, with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of just 4.7, far below the S&P 500’s average of 21 and even lower than peer General Motors’ P/E of 6.2. This steep discount has led many value investors to ask whether now is the right time to add Ford to their portfolios.
Ford’s business is split into three core segments: Ford Blue (internal combustion engine vehicles), Ford Model e (electric vehicles), and Ford Pro (commercial vehicles and services). Its Ford Blue segment remains a reliable cash cow, with the F-Series pickup truck line holding the title of best-selling vehicle in the U.S. for 47 consecutive years, generating $42 billion in revenue in 2023 alone. The Ford Pro segment grew 17% year-over-year in 2023, with high-margin recurring revenue from fleet maintenance, telematics, and commercial financing driving consistent, predictable profits that many analysts have yet to fully price into the stock.
The biggest overhang on Ford’s stock in recent years has been its unprofitable Model e segment, which lost $4.7 billion in 2023. However, management has made significant progress cutting costs, with per-vehicle EV losses dropping from $68,000 in 2022 to $36,000 in 2023, and a public target to hit break-even on EV operations by the end of 2026. The F-150 Lightning electric pickup has maintained its lead as the best-selling electric truck in the U.S., and the upcoming launch of the electric Explorer SUV is expected to boost EV sales volumes significantly in the second half of 2024. Ford’s fast-growing hybrid line, which now makes up 22% of its U.S. retail sales, has also emerged as a surprise win, appealing to customers who want lower running costs without the range anxiety of fully electric vehicles.
Another key draw for income-focused investors is Ford’s 4.8% annual dividend yield, which is well above the 1.5% average for S&P 500 stocks, and management has repeatedly confirmed the dividend is fully covered by expected free cash flow through 2025. Analysts have an average 12-month price target of $15.20 for Ford stock, implying a 27% upside from current levels, with bullish analysts from Morgan Stanley setting a $17 target based on stronger-than-expected demand for pickups and hybrid models.
Risks to the bull case include intensifying competition in the EV market from BYD and Tesla, continued supply chain constraints for battery materials, and potential downside risk to auto sales if the U.S. economy enters a mild recession in late 2024. However, many market strategists argue that these risks are already fully priced into Ford’s deeply discounted valuation, making the stock a low-risk bet for investors with a 3-5 year time horizon.
Featured Comments
As a long-term holder of Ford stock, I’ve been averaging down over the past 18 months. The 4.8% dividend yield alone makes it worth holding for me, and I think the market is way overpunishing its short-term EV growing pains. I’m buying more shares this week to lock in the high yield before the stock bounces back.
Short-term swing trader here. Ford’s technicals look really solid right now—it’s bounced off support at $11.20 three times in the past two months, and the RSI is no longer in oversold territory. I’m taking a small position with a $14 price target for Q3 2024, which lines up with the electric Explorer launch.
I’m holding off on buying for now. The competition in the EV space from Tesla, BYD, and even new Chinese startups is fiercer than ever, and Ford still hasn’t proven it can turn a real profit on its electric models. The low P/E is tempting, but there are too many unknowns about long-term market share for my risk tolerance right now.
As an analyst covering the U.S. auto sector, I think the market is pricing in a worst-case recession scenario for Ford’s core truck and SUV business that’s very unlikely to materialize. Even if new car sales stay flat this year, Ford’s free cash flow is strong enough to cover its dividend and continue investing in EV tech without taking on excess debt. This is a clear buy for value investors right now.