Nu Holdings (NU:NYSE) Stock Slides After Disappointing Q1 2024 Growth Results
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Nu Holdings, the leading Latin American digital banking platform listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker NU, saw its share price drop more than 8% in after-hours trading on May 9, 2024, following the release of its first-quarter financial results that fell short of Wall Street consensus estimates on both top-line growth and user expansion metrics.
Analysts polled by Bloomberg had projected Q1 2024 revenue of $1.92 billion for Nu Holdings, but the company reported actual revenue of $1.87 billion, marking an 18% year-over-year increase – a sharp slowdown from the 34% YoY growth the fintech delivered in Q4 2023, and the slowest quarterly growth rate the company has posted since its 2021 IPO. The revenue miss was driven primarily by narrowing net interest margins in Nu’s core Brazilian market, where repeated central bank rate cuts over the past 12 months have reduced yields on the company’s core personal lending and high-yield savings products.
Monthly active users (MAUs) also missed expectations, coming in at 89.1 million at the end of Q1, versus the consensus estimate of 91.2 million. Growth in the company’s high-priority Mexican market was particularly weak, with MAU growth slowing to 9% quarter-over-quarter, down from 17% QoQ in Q4 2023, as increased competition from local fintech players and tighter regulatory requirements for new customer onboarding weighed on expansion.
While Nu reported a net profit of $121 million for the quarter, up 12% YoY, investors focused on the company’s downwardly revised full-year 2024 growth guidance. Management now forecasts full-year revenue growth of 21% to 23%, down from the prior guidance range of 23% to 25%, citing ongoing macroeconomic headwinds across Latin America and planned increased investment in AI-powered customer service tools and cross-border payment infrastructure.
Multiple Wall Street firms adjusted their ratings and price targets for NU following the print. JPMorgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral, cutting its 12-month price target from $10.20 to $8.40, noting that “the combination of slowing user growth, margin compression and lowered guidance removes the key catalysts that had supported the stock’s 22% year-to-date rally prior to the earnings release.”
Featured Comments
As a NU holder for 2 years, I’m really frustrated by this Q1 miss. The user growth slowdown in Mexico is way worse than I expected, I’m debating whether to cut my losses or hold for the long term since their core Brazilian business is still relatively stable compared to regional peers.
This slowdown was predictable for anyone tracking Latin American rate cycles. Brazil’s Selic rate cuts have squeezed Nu’s net interest margin for 3 straight quarters now, and management’s decision to pour more cash into unproven AI tools instead of expanding their high-margin small business lending portfolio feels like a misstep right now.
We trimmed our NU position by 15% after the earnings call. The lowered full-year guidance is the biggest red flag for us – there’s no clear catalyst for a rebound in growth over the next 2 quarters, and we see more downside risk if their Colombia expansion continues to underperform.
I think the market is overreacting a little here. NU still has the lowest customer acquisition cost in the Latin American fintech space, and their 18% YoY revenue growth is still way above most legacy banks in the region. I’m buying the dip for my long-term emerging markets portfolio.