Stock market today: Dow clinches record high, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise as stocks rebound on US-Iran peace hopes
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U.S. stocks staged a broad, sharp rally on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching an all-time closing high, as easing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran erased last week’s risk-off sentiment across global financial markets. The 30-stock Dow closed 267.59 points higher, or 0.71%, at 37,982.52, breaking its previous record high set in late December 2023. The S&P 500 added 0.85% to finish at 5,146.12, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.02% to end the session at 16,196.73, with both indexes recovering nearly all losses posted earlier this week amid widespread fears of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East.
The rally was triggered by multiple official signals that both Iranian and U.S. officials are actively seeking to avoid further military escalation, after Iran’s retaliatory strike against Israel earlier this week caused minimal structural damage and no fatalities. Senior U.S. government officials confirmed that they do not plan to launch immediate counterstrikes against Iran, a move that investors interpreted as a clear signal that the conflict will not spiral into a broader war that could disrupt global energy supplies and critical trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
In line with the broad risk-on shift, oil prices fell more than 2% to below $84 per barrel, as the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed crude higher over the past two weeks fully evaporated. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, dropped 1.3% to $2,330 per ounce, while the CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, plummeted 18% to its lowest level in three weeks.
Market participants also noted that the strong rally came alongside continued optimism around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. New inflation data released earlier this week showed that while core consumer prices rose slightly faster than expected in March, the broader disinflation trend remains intact, with traders still pricing in a 62% chance of the first 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Tech stocks led the gains, with Nvidia rising 2.1%, Microsoft climbing 1.2%, and Apple adding 1.1% during the session. Small-cap stocks also outperformed, with the Russell 2000 index jumping 1.22% as investors rotated back into riskier assets. All 11 S&P 500 sectors ended in positive territory except for the energy sector, which dipped 0.3% due to lower oil prices. Looking ahead, investors are shifting their focus to the first quarter 2024 earnings season, which kicks off on Friday with reports from major financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to post average earnings growth of 3.2% year-over-year for the first quarter, a figure that could be revised higher if geopolitical risks remain contained over the coming weeks.
Featured Comments
Wow, I was this close to panic selling my entire tech portfolio earlier this week when headlines about the Iran strike were blowing up. It’s such a relief to see both sides choosing de-escalation, and my portfolio already recovered all of last week’s losses in just one trading session. I’m definitely holding onto my positions for the upcoming earnings season now!
As a certified financial planner with 12 years of experience, I always tell my clients to avoid making impulsive trades during geopolitical shocks. This rebound is the perfect example: short-term volatility from political conflicts almost never signals a long-term downturn for the broader market, and investors who sold at the bottom earlier this week missed out on huge gains. The Dow hitting a new all-time high just confirms how strong the underlying U.S. economic fundamentals are right now.
The 2% drop in oil prices after the de-escalation news is arguably even more impactful for the average consumer than the stock market rally. Lower crude prices will translate to cheaper gas and transportation costs in the coming months, which will help pull down headline inflation faster and give the Fed more room to cut rates later this year without risking a price resurgence. I’m upgrading my 2024 S&P 500 price target by 4% following today’s price action.
As a day trader, I made a ton of money buying the dip on semiconductor stocks on Tuesday when everyone was panicking about the Iran conflict. It was obvious that neither side wanted a full-blown war, so the selloff was completely overblown. The market’s reaction today just proves that the smart money was buying while everyone else was running for the exits.