S&P 500 Extends Gains as Chipmakers Eye Best Two-Day Rally in a Month
Key keywords: S&P 500, chipmakers two-day gain, semiconductor stock rally, US equity market, AI chip demand, Fed rate cut expectations, tech sector performance, semiconductor industry outlook
The S&P 500 notched its third consecutive winning session in mid-week trading, climbing 0.87% to close at 5,246, as semiconductor stocks led the broader market higher and are on track to post their strongest two-day performance in the past 30 days. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX), a benchmark for the US chip sector, rose 2.1% on Wednesday following a 2.3% gain in the previous session, putting its two-day cumulative advance at 4.4% – a mark last seen in mid-March 2024.
Leading the chip rally were top AI chipmaker NVIDIA, which gained 3.2% to hit $893 per share, as investors reacted to reports that the company is ramping up production of its next-generation H200 AI chips to meet unmet global demand. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed 4.1% higher after its management confirmed that shipments of its MI300 series AI accelerators are running 30% above initial forecasts for the first quarter of 2024. Memory chip maker Micron Technology added 2.8%, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) US ADR rose 1.9% on news that it has received new orders for 3nm chips from multiple US tech giants for their 2024 product lines.
Multiple factors are driving the dual rally in the S&P 500 and semiconductor stocks. First, newly released Federal Reserve meeting minutes confirmed that central bank officials remain on track to deliver three 25-basis-point interest rate cuts in 2024, easing investor concerns that persistent inflation would delay monetary policy easing. Lower interest rates typically boost valuations of high-growth tech and semiconductor stocks, which rely on cheap capital to fund expansion and R&D. Second, industry data from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization shows that global semiconductor sales rose 12.4% year-over-year in February 2024, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year growth and confirming that the sector has fully exited its 2023 downturn. WSTS now projects full-year 2024 semiconductor market growth of 13.1%, driven primarily by a 35% jump in AI-related chip sales.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley noted in a research note published Wednesday that the recent 7% pullback in the SOX index over the first two weeks of April was a "healthy correction" rather than the start of a broader downturn, citing unrelenting demand for AI infrastructure from cloud providers, enterprise customers, and government agencies. The S&P 500’s gain was also supported by solid performances in the consumer discretionary and financial sectors, but tech stocks contributed nearly 60% of the index’s total daily advance, highlighting the outsize role of the chip sector in driving current market momentum. Market watchers now expect the SOX to hit a new all-time high by the end of the second quarter if chipmakers deliver positive earnings beats in their upcoming quarterly reports.
Featured Comments
As a retail investor holding 30% of my portfolio in semiconductor ETFs, this two-day rally comes as a huge relief after the 7% pullback we saw over the past two weeks. The fundamental demand for AI chips hasn't gone anywhere, so I'm planning to hold my positions for at least another 2 years to capture long-term growth.
From a sector perspective, this rally is well-supported by hard data: global semiconductor sales rose 12.4% year-over-year in February 2024, and AI chip order backlogs for top manufacturers are extending into 2025. The only near-term risk I see is if the Fed pushes rate cuts further out than the market expects, which could add pressure to high-growth tech valuations.
We added to our positions in NVIDIA and AMD during the recent dip, and this two-day gain validates our view that the market overreacted to minor concerns about AI demand slowdown. We expect the chip sector to outperform the broader S&P 500 by at least 15% in 2024 as enterprise AI spending accelerates in the second half of the year.
I work in enterprise cloud infrastructure, and we've already locked in 2x our 2023 AI chip budget for 2024. All the talk of an AI bubble feels disconnected from the actual demand we're seeing on the ground, so I'm not surprised chip stocks are bouncing back so fast.