El Niño Could Impact This Winter's Snowfall And Your Ski Trip
Key keywords: El Niño 2024, winter snowfall prediction, North American ski resorts, ski trip planning, Pacific climate pattern, winter weather forecast, backcountry skiing safety, alpine tourism revenue
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that the 2024-2025 El Niño event, one of the strongest in the past decade, will persist through the entire Northern Hemisphere winter, bringing dramatic shifts to snowfall patterns across North America that will directly affect millions of skiers’ winter travel plans.
El Niño is triggered by abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which shifts the path of the jet stream southward across the continent. This shift leads to significantly higher precipitation and colder temperatures across the southern U.S., while the northern half of the country experiences unseasonably warm, dry conditions for most of the winter. For ski destinations, this means resorts in the Sierra Nevada range (including Lake Tahoe, California), southern Utah, and southern Colorado can expect 30% to 50% more snowfall than the annual average, with high-elevation areas on track to hit record snowpack levels by mid-January. On the other hand, resorts in the Pacific Northwest (Washington and Oregon), northern Rockies (Montana, Wyoming, and Alberta, Canada), and New England region will see 20% to 40% less snowfall than normal, with average winter temperatures 2 to 4 degrees Celsius higher than usual. Low-elevation resorts in these northern regions may delay their opening by 1 to 2 weeks, and some lower trails may rely entirely on artificial snow for the first half of the season.
These shifts are already reshaping ski travel trends across the continent. As of late October, booking rates for California and southern Utah ski resorts are up 45% year over year, while cancellation rates for northern Rockies and New England resort reservations have hit 15%. Ski industry analysts advise travelers planning winter ski trips to prioritize destinations with high-elevation terrain, book flexible, cancelable lift ticket and accommodation packages, and check monthly snowfall updates from local resort operators before finalizing plans. For backcountry skiers, the above-average snowfall in southern regions also brings elevated avalanche risk, so all off-trail travelers are required to carry beacons, probes, and shovels, and complete avalanche safety training before entering unpatrolled terrain. For resort operators, the El Niño pattern creates a clear split in projected revenue: southern high-altitude resorts are expecting a 30% jump in annual revenue this season, while northern low-altitude resorts have invested an average of 25% more in snowmaking equipment this fall to offset the expected shortage of natural snow.
Featured Comments
As a lifelong skier who has been planning a trip to Banff National Park for 6 months, I just switched my reservation to a resort near Lake Tahoe after reading the latest El Niño forecast. I’d rather chase guaranteed deep powder than risk slushy runs and closed lifts in the Canadian Rockies this year.
I’m the operations manager at a small family-owned ski resort in Vermont. We’ve invested over $200,000 in new energy-efficient snowmaking equipment this fall, so even if natural snowfall is lower than average, we’ll be able to keep 90% of our trails open from mid-December through late March. Don’t write off Northeast ski trips just yet!
As a climate scientist who studies El Niño patterns, I want to remind everyone that these are regional predictions, not guarantees. There will still be occasional heavy winter storms in the Northern Rockies and New England this year, so keeping an eye on 10-day forecasts right before your trip is way more useful than panicking over long-term outlooks months in advance.
My family books a ski trip to southern Utah every February, and this year we’re extra excited about the predicted above-average snowfall. We already bought our season passes and booked a cabin close to the resort, and we’re looking forward to some of the best powder days in the last five years.