Key keywords: Talarico, Ken Paxton, independent voters, Texas 2024 legislative election, voter polling data, swing voter support, Texas House race, suburban Texas voters A new statewide poll released Tuesday by the nonpartisan Texas Politics Project confirms that Democratic state representative James Talarico is outperforming Republican opponent Ken Paxton by a wide margin among independent voters, a critical voting bloc that has shaped Texas election outcomes for the past three cycles. The survey of 1,200 registered Texas voters found that Talarico holds 52% support among independent voters, compared to Paxton’s 31%, with 17% still undecided ahead of the November general election. Independent voters make up roughly 31% of all registered voters in Texas, outnumbering both registered Democrats and Republicans in several key suburban swing districts across the state. Historically, this group has leaned slightly toward Republican candidates in state-level races, with 54% of independent voters backing GOP candidates in the 2022 midterms. The 21-point gap in Talarico’s favor marks the first time a Democratic candidate has held a double-digit lead among independent voters in a Texas state legislative race in over two decades, according to data from the Texas Election Analysis Center. Multiple factors are driving the unprecedented shift in independent voter support, per the poll’s cross-sectional data. 62% of independent respondents reported holding an unfavorable view of Paxton, citing his 2023 impeachment on corruption charges, his push for extreme statewide abortion bans with no exceptions for rape or incest, and his repeated attempts to cut funding for Texas public schools as their top concerns. By contrast, Talarico holds a +28 net favorable rating among independent voters, with respondents praising his track record of cross-party collaboration to pass targeted property tax relief, expand access to affordable childcare, and increase funding for special education programs in Texas public schools. Talarico’s campaign has prioritized outreach to independent voters over the past three months, hosting 27 town hall events in suburban swing counties and releasing a series of policy ads focused on pocketbook issues that resonate with moderate voters, rather than divisive partisan messaging. Paxton’s campaign, by comparison, has focused almost exclusively on rallies with far-right conservative groups, with no scheduled public events targeting independent voters as of press time. Election analysts note that if Talarico’s lead among independent voters holds through election day, he is on track to win the race by a 7 to 10 point margin, and could help flip three additional Texas House seats to Democratic control, narrowing the GOP’s current 2-seat majority in the state legislature.