Key keywords: Super El Niño 2024, El Niño development probability, fall 2024 climate event, record strongest El Niño, NOAA ENSO forecast, global extreme weather impacts, Pacific Ocean warming, agricultural supply chain risks New data released jointly by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) this week confirms that the odds of a powerful Super El Niño forming by the Northern Hemisphere fall of 2024 have jumped to 83%, up from 71% just one month ago, with a 56% chance that the event will become the strongest ever recorded in human history. El Niño is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, marked by sustained above-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. A Super El Niño classification is triggered when those temperatures stay at least 2.0°C above the long-term average for three consecutive months, a threshold that the 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 events both crossed, causing widespread global disruption. Current climate models show that 2024’s developing event could push temperature anomalies as high as 2.7°C above average by late fall, exceeding both previous record events. Monthly monitoring data from a network of 70 ocean buoys across the equatorial Pacific shows that subsurface ocean temperatures have already risen 4°C above average in key regions, and trade winds that normally keep warm water confined to the western Pacific have weakened by 40% since April, accelerating the eastward spread of warm water masses. NOAA lead ENSO forecaster Michelle L’Heureux noted in a press briefing that “the rate of warming we’re seeing right now is unprecedented for this stage of an ENSO cycle. All signs point to an extremely strong event that will have cascading impacts across every continent for at least 12 months after it peaks.” The expected impacts of the potential record Super El Niño are already being mapped by climate and policy teams globally. Western South American nations including Peru, Ecuador, and Chile can expect up to 400% above average rainfall between late 2024 and early 2025, raising risks of catastrophic flooding and landslides. Conversely, Southeast Asia, Australia, and parts of southern Africa face a 60% higher risk of extended severe drought, which could cut rice, palm oil, and wheat yields by 20 to 30% in the most affected regions. North America will likely see warmer-than-average winter temperatures across the western U.S. and Canada, and heavier than average snow and rain across the eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast. The event is also expected to push global average temperatures to new record highs, with WMO analysts warning that 2024 and 2025 are now 90% likely to become the two hottest years on record, amplifying heatwave risks across Europe, South Asia, and the Middle East. Agricultural commodity analysts have already projected a 15 to 20% rise in global staple food prices by early 2025 as supply chains adjust to expected yield losses.