Key keywords: Donald Trump approval rating, Louisiana 2024 election polling, GOP presidential support, Southern U.S. voter sentiment, 2024 swing state trends, Louisiana Republican voter preferences, Trump criminal case impact on elections A new independent poll conducted by the Louisiana State University Public Policy Research Lab in mid-October 2024 has found that former President Donald Trump’s approval rating among registered voters in the deeply red state of Louisiana has dropped to 47%, falling below the 50% threshold for the first time since he launched his first presidential campaign in 2015. The poll surveyed 824 registered voters across all regions of the state, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, making its findings statistically significant. Historically, Trump has enjoyed overwhelming support in Louisiana, winning the state by 19 percentage points over Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, with his approval rating hovering between 54% and 58% in state polls over the past four years. The latest 7-point drop has been attributed to three key factors, according to the poll’s researchers: growing unease among moderate Republican voters about Trump’s four criminal convictions earlier this year, frustration among coastal residents over his 2020 administration’s slow response to Hurricane Laura disaster relief, and growing anxiety among oil and gas industry workers over his recent vague comments about potential federal drilling restrictions if he returns to office. The data shows that Trump’s support has slipped most sharply among independent voters, dropping from 52% in a June 2024 LSU poll to 38% in the latest survey. His support among self-identified moderate Republicans also fell 13 points, from 89% to 76%, over the same period. Even among conservative rural voters, who make up the core of his base in the state, his approval rating dropped 4 points, to 78%. The Trump campaign has pushed back against the poll’s findings, claiming that the sample underrepresents rural and working-class voters who are more likely to support the former president, and that internal campaign polling still puts his approval rating in the state at 55%. Meanwhile, the Biden campaign has seized on the results, framing them as proof that voters across party lines are rejecting Trump’s “chaos and self-serving agenda” in favor of Biden’s record of job growth and infrastructure investment in the state. Political analysts note that while Trump is still heavily favored to win Louisiana’s 8 electoral votes in the November election, the dip in support could put several competitive U.S. House seats in the state at risk for Republican candidates who have tied their campaigns closely to Trump’s platform.